In this session, Gartner VP & Distinguished Analyst Thomas Bittman talks about the Server Virtualization market – its history, major trends today and where it’s headed.
28% of all installed workloads are Virtual Machines (VMs). As we’ve pointed to in our own IT survey [link], virtualization has moved far beyond the hype and come of age as a critical component of any data center strategy.
During today’s session, Bittman ran an informal poll asking:
Who’s just starting out with Virtualization – 1 lone hand popped up
Who’s in the middle of their Virtualization journey – almost everyone
Who’s so far ahead they’re looking down on the rest of us – a few interesting souls
Big points: There will be more VMs deployed during 2011 than in 2001-2009 combined. CIO’s consider virtualization the No. 1 technology trend – the business impact is huge (2009 Gartner CIO Survey)
In 2005, VMware’s installed base market share was 100%, by 2012, it will be 65%.
In 2009 – midsize company survey (100-999 employees)
About 30% started server virtualization in 2008.
Another 30% starting in 2009.
Midmarket taking off for server virtualization projects. Enterprises virtualize as they modernize and replace equipment. This means they will be done with their server virtualization project in something like 7 years (server/hardware lifecycle).
Midsize companies tend to virtualize as part of one or 2 projects, and will be done in just one or 2 years.
Percentage of installed x86 Workloads Running in a VM
- 2008 12%
- 2009 19%
- 2010 28%
- 2011 38%
- 2012 48%
In the next 2 years, % of installed VMs will double – midmarket growth is a big driver. Server virtualization market (installed): 2009 – 10.8 million VMs
- VMware 84%
- Microsoft 11%
- Citrix 4%
- Others 1%
by 2012 – 58 million VMs
- VMware 65%
- Microsoft 27%
- Citrix 6%
- Red Hat 2%
- Others less than 1%
VMware’s dominance in the enterprise will continue; true, they will have a smaller share but of a much larger pie.
x86 Server Virtualization Infrastructure Magic Quadrant (2010) VMware stands alone in the Leaders quadrant Microsoft alone in the Challengers quadrant (still immature product) Citrix alone in Visionaries quadrant (problem with execution).
And everyone else – from Red Hat to Oracle/Solaris – in the Nice Players quadrant How important will heterogeneous virtual machine support be in your enterprise by 2012?
- Very important 49%
- Somewhat important 35%
- Not important 16%
BUT – Gartner thinks it’s more important to simplify than to plan for managing multiple. Also for those organizations that have multiple hypervisors, different VM types exist in different business units for example.
Multiple hypervisors not usually used or managed together. By 2014 – fewer than 10% of enterprises with more than 1000 employees will manage two or more hypervisors together.
The Future of Server Virtualization:
- Automated long-distance live migration
- Fault-tolerant VMs
- Service-smart VM management
- Private cloud: self-service, metered usage (look for VMware’s “Redwood” offering late this year)
- Migration (including live) between on-premise and off-premise (e.g., cloud)
- Single console management for on-premise and off
- Disaster recovery either on-premise or off
“Virtualization leads inexorably to cloud computing.” Stage 1:Server Virtualization Stage 2: Distributed Virtualization Stage 3: Private Cloud Stage 4: Hybrid Cloud (most orgs will stay here).
Stage 5: Public Cloud Julia’s note: I used to believe that Private Clouds were coming first, and maybe that’s true for large enterprises, but I think I’m about to flip my thinking around this.
Certainly, for most orgs, SaaS came first and it’s up to enterprises to manage SaaS services and validate SLAs – and what they pay for that SLA.
But when I think about how much harder it is to transform operations to run as a private cloud – all the politics involved just around chargeback or cost accounting – I can’t help but start to lean towards IaaS as the next set of cloud computing projects for enterprises, and perhaps more appropriately for business units and the midmarket.
When it comes to cloud, IT has to think at a service level, and if you’re already thinking that way, how much easier is it to make the determination at an individual service level for what to move to the cloud and how.
How much faster. How much easier to manage. How much smarter.
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